Let’s start with the easy predictions for the 74th annual Golden Globe Awards. There’s a 99 percent chance host Jimmy Fallon will sing in the first 20 minutes, and then the camera will cut to Justin Timberlake. Nominee Meryl Streep, also the Cecil B. DeMille Award winner, will get a primo seat. And at least one of the winners will take the stage and breathlessly exclaim, “I was not expecting this!!!!” (Lie). But who exactly will take home those trophies — and do they really deserve it? More pressing: Can 90 members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association really affect how thousands of Academy members will mark their Oscar ballots next month? Us Weekly film critic Mara Reinstein attempts to break down all 14 categories ahead of the January 8 ceremony (NBC, 8 p.m.). Place your bets and pass the popcorn. (Watch the contenders in the video above).
Best Picture, Drama
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Will Win: Lion
Should Win: Manchester by the Sea
My brain says the poignant Moonlight will take it. My heart says to go with Manchester by the Sea, the complex, emotionally draining gem. (Indeed, if this award were titled, “Best Gut-Wrenching Tearjerker that Makes You Grateful for Fresh Oxygen,” Manchester would win in a landslide.) But I’m going with my gut and selecting Lion. The Weinstein Company–backed true tale spans three decades and two continents — and it ends with the ultimate crowd-pleasing exclamation point. That’s the kind of material the Hollywood Foreign Press devours. Just note that a win is not necessarily an Oscar precursor: The Revenant won last year (not Spotlight) and Boyhood took it in 2015 (not Birdman).
Best Picture, Comedy or Musical
20th Century Women
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Sing Street
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: La La Land
If you’ve entered a Golden Globes pool and didn’t put moolah on La La Land for this category, I have to seriously question your desire to win. Though all the nominees have their considerable charm (stream Sing Street, for reals!), this modern ode to vintage musicals is a magical piece of cinema that will be treasured for years. Only the most heartless curmudgeon would vote against it.
Best Actor, Drama
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Will Win: Casey Affleck
Should Win: Casey Affleck
So far in this young competition season, Casey Affleck has done everything right. Show a lighter side on Saturday Night Light? Done. Dutifully attend every awards ceremony? Done. He also happens to turn in a heartbreaking, revelatory performance as a broken Bostonian. Runner-up honors go to the always-outstanding Denzel Washington.
Best Actress, Drama
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Will Win: Natalie Portman
Should Win: Amy Adams
What does Amy Adams have to do to win a friggin’ gold trophy?! In her latest acting showcase, she’s brilliant enough to save the whole darn world. And that’s not enough to beat Natalie Portman, who owns the screen playing former first lady Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis. It’s a Camelot thing.
Best Actor, Comedy
Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill, War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool
Will Win: Ryan Gosling
Should Win: Ryan Reynolds
That Ryan Gosling sure has a bright future in this business. Not only can the man sing, tap dance, play piano and act, he also has the power to burn a hole through the heart with just one powerful stare. (Or maybe that’s just me?). If we’re talking pure comedy chops, however, the other Canadian named Ryan gets the edge. Nobody delivered more yuks per minute last year than Reynolds’ snarky comic book hero.
Best Actress, Comedy
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Lily Collins, Rules Don’t Apply
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Will Win: Emma Stone
Should Win: Emma Stone
When Emma Stone, portraying a Hollywood starlet daring to dream big, walks into an audition room late in La La Land, she is a cute movie star. When she walks out, she is a revelation. That’s how much Stone capitalizes on her showstopping, “And I’m Telling You I’m Not Going”–esque moment. Too bad she can’t share the award with Annette Bening, who plays a headstrong single mom in one of the most authentic performances of her career.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
Will Win: Jeff Bridges
Should Win: Mahershala Ali
This is the trickiest category to predict because all five nominees could easily make a case for winning. (Well, except Simon Helberg, who got Kevin Costner’s spot for Hidden Figures.) But Jeff Bridges, a renowned Hollywood legend, is grizzled to perfection playing a wise Texas Ranger. Look for Mahershala Ali — Moonlight‘s doomed father figure — to pull ahead come Oscar time.
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Will Win: Viola Davis
Should Win: Viola Davis
With much respect to Naomie Harris, Nicole Kidman, Octavia Spencer and Michelle Williams, this is not a contest. The trophy engraving for Davis started right around the time she filmed the scene in which her put-upon character finally stands up to her domineering husband (Denzel Washington). Cliché alert: It’s an acting master class.
Best Animated Feature Film
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
Sing
Zootopia
Will win: Zootopia
Should win: Zootopia
All excellent choices. In fact, in most years, the gorgeous Disney musical Moana would be the shoo-in. But not even Lin-Manuel Miranda’s clever songs can stack up against the only film on this list to feature adorable talking animals and a whip-smart (and scary-relevant) story about societal prejudice. It gets the vote.
Best Foreign Language Film
Divines
Elle
Neruda
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann
Will win: Toni Erdmann
Should win: Toni Erdmann
I’m using this space as a public service announcement for Toni Erdmann. Don’t be dismayed by the run time (162 minutes) or the subtitles (it’s in German). This sublime tragicomedy — about a corporate-minded woman whose prankster dad upends her life — journeys to the most hilarious and unexpected places. See it.
Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Will Win: Damien Chazelle
Should Win: Damien Chazelle
Last January: The controversial Mel Gibson will never be nominated for a Golden Globe. Hello, that’s right up there with the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series and Donald Trump being elected President of the United States! This January: Anything is possible!!! Gibson showed off his considerable talents directing the blood-and-guts-drenched World War II epic. He’s a solid contender. Still, it’s difficult not to reward Damien Chazelle, the wunderkind who reinvigorated a beloved genre.
Best Screenplay
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
Will Win: Kenneth Lonergan
Should Win: Kenneth Lonergan
Take away the beautiful music and the gorgeous cinematography, and La La Land doesn’t quite hold up on story alone. (Even Stone and Gosling’s sparkling chemistry plays a factor in the movie’s excellence.) The same can’t be said for Kenneth Lonergan’s nuanced original screenplay. The narrative plays out effortlessly on the screen, and yet every word matters.
Best Original Score
Moonlight
La La Land
Arrival
Lion
Hidden Figures
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: La La Land
Justin Hurwitz’s lovely La La Land score isn’t just background music in a movie — it’s a powerful driving force. It makes Stone and Gosling float on air on a date in a museum and then takes them down to Earth in a dingy apartment. And his seven-minute epilogue is so wondrous that it doesn’t even need visuals.
Best Original Song
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“Faith,” Sing
“Gold,” Gold
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
Will Win: “City of Stars”
Should Win: “Can’t Stop the Feeling”
Automatic eye roll at the HPFA for failing to nominate the best movie song of the year, “Audition” from La La Land. Anyhoo, let’s give this one to “City of Stars,” only because the best musical of the year needs to be recognized for its music. That said, JT’s peppy summer anthem was, yes, unstoppable.
